Palm Jebel Ali — the re-rating
Why the second Palm is closer to its first decade than its last. Released April 2026.
April's note covered the structural re-rating underway at Palm Jebel Ali. The framing investors needed: this is not the post-2008 Palm Jebel Ali. New developer, new masterplan parameters, new infrastructure delivery curve, and a Nakheel cycle position that materially changes the absorption maths.
The 12-page note walked through the comparable set against Palm Jumeirah at equivalent phase, the asymmetry between fronds and the centre spine, the implied yield at handover for the three primary villa tiers, and the conditions under which Palm Jebel Ali compresses to a 15–25% discount versus Jumeirah rather than the 40%+ that surface-level analysis suggests.
The note also flagged the specific phases and frond positions we recommended avoiding on liquidity and view-axis grounds, even where the launch pricing looked attractive on a per-square-foot basis.
This note is closed to new readers. The full 12-page PDF was distributed to subscribers in April 2026. If you'd like the current note (Note 03, Hudayriyat Golf Estates), request it on the homepage.
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